Chapter Five – 2013 Stats – A Closer Look at VBS

Vacation Bible School (VBS) as a vehicle for Christian formation and mission outreach has been around for over one hundred years. While it is primarily a ministry with children, some churches have youth and adult components, and many churches have youth and adults who serve as teachers, assistant teachers, music leaders, craft leaders, food preparers, and so forth. 

This chapter takes a closer look at those congregations that have at least ten people participating in VBS. As in other chapters, all the churches referred to have at least five members. One word of reminder, correlation does not imply causation. For example, while it is true that churches with VBS of at least ten people accounted for 82% of all professions of faith, we cannot claim that VBS causes professions of faith. 

The first thing I noticed is that there is very nearly a 50-50 split between churches that have at least ten VBS participants and those that don't. Out of 32,154 congregations, 16,245 had a VBS attendance of less than ten and 15,909 had a VBS attendance of ten or more. One could say that the median VBS attendance for the denomination is 10. However, that would be misleading since it would include the approximately 50% of congregations that do not have VBS. It would be more accurate to say that the median number of participants for churches that have VBS is 45.

The 15,909 congregations with at least 10 VBS participants account for:
• 50% of all United Methodist congregations.
• 79% of all United Methodist members.
• 78% of those worshipping on an average Sunday in a United Methodist Church.
• 87% of those served by day care or other educational ministries.
• 89% of children in Christian formation.
• 88% of youth in Christian formation.
• 86% of all people in Christian formation.
• 73% of all Sunday school classes.
• 90% of all VIM participants
• 89% of all engaged in community mission
• 79% of all served by community ministries of outreach, justice, and mercy.

In doing a geographical breakdown:
• 43% of churches in the Northeastern Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.
• 46% of churches in the Western Jurisdiction  have at least 10 VBS participants.
• 51% of churches in the Southeastern Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.
• 52% of churches in the North Central Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.

• 53% of churches in the South Central Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.

Things I Noticed

• The 79% of United Methodists who belong to congregations that have at least 10 VBS participants account for 90% of VIM participants and 86% of all people in Christian formation.

• While there are some differences in frequency of VBS based on jurisdiction, there is not a huge difference. 

Things I Wonder About

• Is VBS perhaps an indicator of sustainability? When congregations no longer have the resources, energy, and commitment to provide VBS, does that signal that they may be in danger of not having the capacity to engage in ongoing Christian formation and outreach?

Chapter Four – 2013 Stats – Does the Pareto Principle Apply?

In 1896, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the people of Italy. The idea that approximately 80% of effects are the result of about 20% of causes came to be known as the Pareto Principle or the 80-20 rule. For example, many businesses find that 80% of profits come from 20% of customers.

I thought it might be interesting to see if the Pareto Principle was evident in any of our church statistics. I decided to look at the 20% of churches that make up the largest average worship attendance. As with other posts this is based on congregations of at least five members. The 20% of congregations represent 6476 congregations out of a total of 32,154. Every congregation in the 20% had an average worship attendance of 112 or greater.

In 2013, the 20% of congregations with the largest average worship attendance account for:
• 63% of total average worship attendance
• 63% of total professing members
• 66% of all children baptized
• 62% of all adults baptized
• 68% of all professions of faith
• 73% of all people in confirmation class
• 70% of all people received from other United Methodist congregations
• 75% of all people received from other denominations
• 69% of all restored members
• 52% of all deaths
• 69% of all charge conference removals
• 68% of all those who withdrew their membership
• 69% of those who transferred to another United Methodist congregation
• 63% of those who transferred to another denomination
• 50% of Sunday School classes
• 63% of average Sunday School attendance
• 63% of ongoing classes other than Sunday School
• 64% of short term classes
• 57% of UMW members
• 61% of UMM members
• 63% of Vacation Bible School participants
• 74% of children involved in Christian formation
• 74% of youth involved in Christian formation
• 70% of young adults involved in Christian formation
• 71% of all other adults involved in Christian formation
• 71% of those served by community ministries for outreach, justice, and mercy
• 79% of those engaged in mission
• 82% of VIM participants
• 75% of those served by day care or educational ministries
• 65% of total amount apportioned to all churches
• 67% of total amount of apportionments paid by all churches
• 68% of all total local church income
• 67% of total expenses for local congregation pastors and staff
• 59% of total market value of all local congregations including land, buildings, equipment, and other assets

Things I Noticed

• While we don't see a true 80-20 rule in effect, in many cases there does seem to be something of a 65-75 to 20 principle. In all but deaths, Sunday school classes, UMW members, and total market value of assets, the 20% of congregations with the highest average worship attendance account for over 60% of each described category.

• If 20% of our congregations have an average worship attendance of 112 or more, then 80% of our congregations have an average worship attendance of 111 or less.

Things I Wonder About

 • If 20% of the congregations account for 69% of charge conference removals does that indicate that people leave through the "back door" more often in larger worshipping congregations, or does it indicate that smaller worshipping congregations aren't as diligent in keeping their membership roles clean?

• 71% of those served by community ministries, 75% served by day care ministries, 82% of VIM volunteers, and 79% of those engaged in mission come from 20% of congregations. I wonder if it takes so much energy to sustain a smaller worshipping community that there is not much energy left for outreach?

• What does it mean for the way we allocate resources that 20% of congregations account for such a high percentage of the ministry activity that takes place?

Chapter Three – 2013 Stats – Membership Gains Over Time

The four recorded ways that local congregations gain professing members are through professions of faith, transfer of membership from another United Methodist Church, joining from another denomination, and restored members. This chapter looks at the statistics related to these four areas over the past several years. As in other posts, these numbers are based on churches with at least five members. The figures in parentheses () indicate the raw numbers for the year, and the figures in brackets {} are a percentage comparison to the previous year.

Things I Noticed

• As a percentage of membership gains, professions of faith have been nudging up over the past seven years while those we receive from other congregations, either UMC or other denominations, have been nudging down. Each year from 2007 to 2010, we received more professing members through transfer than we did by profession of faith, in 2011 the numbers were nearly equal, and in each of 2012 and 2013 there were several thousand more professions of faith than transfers.

• The number of people whose membership was restored took a huge drop between 2008 and 2009.

• While there was a bit of an uptick in professions of faith from 2011 to 2012, from 2012 and 2013 was the highest percentage decrease of professions of faith in the past seven years.

• If everyone who became a professing member from 2007 to 2013 were still a member, they would make up over 12% of membership.

• If everyone who became a professing member from 2007 to 2013 were a weekly worship attender, they would make up over 31% of the worshippers each Sunday.

Things I Wonder About

• I wonder if we are being intentional about welcoming United Methodists and other Christians who move into our communities? When people move do they find another church home, or do they join the ranks of those who have no faith community?

• I wonder what it means for worship planning and for faith formation experiences that an increasing percentage of our new members are also new Christians?

Of all reported membership gains in 2013
49% were professions of faith (118,079) {5.2% fewer than 2012}
27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (66,012) {4.4% fewer than 2012}
19% were received from other denominations (46,920) {6.2% fewer than 2012}
5% were restored members (11,553) {7.1% fewer than 2012}
Total Number of people: (242,564) {5.3% fewer than 2012}

Of all reported membership gains in 2012
49% were professions of faith (124,598) {.5% more than 2011}
27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (69,051) {5.1% fewer than 2011}
20% were received from other denominations (50,023) {1.5% fewer than 2011}
5% were restored members (12,443) {.75% more than 2011}
Total Number of people: (256,115) {1.3% fewer than 2011}

Of all reported membership gains in 2011
48% were professions of faith (123,960) {3.5% fewer than 2010}
28% were received from other United Methodist Churches (72,762) {10.5% fewer than 2010}
20% were received from other denominations (50,773) {.5% fewer than 2010}
5% were restored members (12,350) {5.3% more than 2010}
Total Number of people: (259,485) {4.8% fewer than 2010)

Of all reported membership gains in 2010
47% were professions of faith (128,454) {4.8% fewer than 2009}
30% were received from other United Methodist Churches (81,271) {5.9% fewer than 2009}
19% were received from other denominations (51,053) {9.6% fewer than 2009}
4% were restored members (11,728) {12.4% fewer than 2009} {.6% fewer than 2009}
Total Number of people: (272,506) {6.4% fewer than 2009}

Of all reported membership gains in 2009
46% were professions  of faith (134,987) {.6% fewer than 2008}
30% were received from other United Methodist Churches (86,393) {7.5% more than 2008}
19% were received from other denominations (56,470) {7.1% fewer than 2008}
5% were restored members (13,382) {46.3% fewer than 2008}
Total Number of people: (291,232) {3.5% fewer than 2008}

Of all reported membership gains in 2008
45% were professions of faith (135,748) {3.2% fewer than 2007}
27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (80,333) {8.2% fewer than 2007}
20% were received from other denominations (60,756) {5.1% fewer than 2007}
8% were restored members (24,942) {4.0% fewer than 2007}
Total Number of people: (301,779) {5% fewer than 2007}

Of all reported membership gains in 2007
44% were professions of faith (140,199)
28% were received from other United Methodist Churches (87,539)
20% were received from other denominations (64,016)
8% were restored members (25,970)
Total Number of people: (317,724)

Chapter Two - 2013 Stats - VBS, Sunday School, Confirmation, and Christian Formation

This chapter looks at the statistics that relate to the area usually referred to as Christian education or Christian formation. Since I believe that the church teaches in everything that it does (credit the influence of Howard Grimes and Dick Murray), a case could be made that every statistic relates to Christian formation. However, for this chapter we will focus on Sunday school, Vacation Bible 
School (VBS), confirmation, short-term classes, on-going classes other than Sunday school, and day care.

As with most chapters, the statistics given are based on churches with at least five members. First let's look at raw numbers and how they compare to 2012.

• Average Sunday school attendance: 1,033,381 (A decrease of 4.1% from 2012)
• Number of Sunday school classes: 147,849 (An increase of 6.6% from 2012)
• Number of on-going classes other than Sunday school: 91,176 (A decrease of .07% from 2012)
• Number of short term classes: 83,247 (A decrease of 5.8% from 2012)
• Number served by daycare ministries: 1,176,486 (An increase of 1.9% from 2012)
• Number attending VBS: 1,130,301 (A decrease of .99%)
• Number in confirmation classes: 64,061 (A decrease of 7.6%)

• Total participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries:2,939,599 (An increase of .84% from 2012)
• Children participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries:785,047 (A decrease of .22% from 2012)
• Youth participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries:430,990 (A decrease of 2% from 2012)
• Young adults participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: 201,958 (An increase of 3.5% from 2012)
• Other adults participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: 1,521,604 (An increase of 1.9% from 2012)

A Five Year Comparison

Now let's take a longer view and see how the 2013 numbers compare to the statistics five years earlier (2009).

• Average Sunday school attendance: A net decrease of 159,410 or a decrease of 13.4%
• Number of Sunday school classes: A net decrease of 16,815 or a decrease of 10%
• Number of on-going classes other than Sunday school: A net decrease of 4235 or a decrease of 4.4%
• Number of short term classes: A net decrease of 18,313 or a decrease of 18%
• Number served by daycare ministries: A net increase of 368,103 or an increase of 45.5%
• Number attending VBS: A net increase of 46,805 or an increase of 4.3%
• Number in confirmation classes: A net decrease of 14,149 or a decrease of 18.1%

• Total participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: An increase of 293,399 or an increase of 11%
• Children participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: Net increase of 65,762 or an increase of 2.5%
• Youth participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: Net increase of 10,206 or an increase of 2.4%
• Young adults participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: Net increase of 13,939 or an increase of 7.4%
• Other adults participating in Christian formation groups and other small group ministries: Net increase of 203,492 or an increase of 15.4%

Things I Noticed

• There has been a huge increase in the number served by daycare ministries over a five year period.
• Average Sunday school attendance has decreased significantly while the total number of people involved in Sunday school and other small groups has increased, particularly  among adults.
• Over five years there has been a fairly large drop in the number of short term classes.
• Over five years Vacation Bible School participation has increased.

Things I Wonder About

• Over the past five years there has been an increase in the number of youth and children participating in Christian formation and other small group ministries, yet over the same time there has been a large decrease in the number of people in confirmation classes. I wonder what that indicates about our intentionality in nurturing baptized members "in Christ's holy Church, that by our teaching and example they may be guided to accept God's grace for themselves, to profess their faith openly, and to lead a Christian life." (BOW p.96)

• I wonder if the continuing decrease in average Sunday school attendance is an indication that people aren't joining classes or that they are attending less frequently? The increase in total numbers coupled with the decrease in average attendance makes me think that frequency of attendance may be a subject that needs more study.

Chapter One — 2013 Statistics — Ethnicity, Gender, Membership

Each United Methodist congregation maintains records on membership, worship attendance, and a host of other statistics. This information is submitted on a yearly basis to the annual conference and then on to the General Council of Finance and Administration. The staff at GCFA diligently processes this data so that we have a snapshot of the state of the denomination. I am a firm believer that our statistical tables are more than dry numbers in neat columns. Behind each number is a story. The numbers do not provide answers, but they do lead to good questions. 

This post and those that follow will deal with the 2013 statistics of The United Methodist Church. I hope that they encourage meaningful conversation and raise intriguing questions. The information below is based on a composite of churches with at least five members (32,154 congregations). You may want to read this post from last year to see the similar statistics from 2012.

Ethnicity as a Percentage of the total number of United Methodist Members
African American: 6.11% (This represents a net increase of 2,571 people from 2012)
Asian American: 1.26%(This represents a net decrease of 619 people from 2012)
Hispanic American: 1.03% (This represents a net increase of 303 people from 2012)
Native American: .29% (This represents a net decrease of 266 people from 2012)
Euro American: 90.1% (This represents a net decrease of 72,183 people from 2012)
Pacific Islander: .19% (This represents a net increase of 241 people from 2012)
Multi Racial: .78% (This represents net increase of 7,099 people from 2012)
Not Reporting: .24% (This represents a net decrease of 30,492 people from 2012)

(Note: There were a total of 57,160 people reported as multi-racial, however, this includes 25,714 people from 59 congregations in which 100% of the congregation was reported as multi-racial. I am doubtful that those 59 congregations were defining multi-racial in the same way as the other 32,095 congregations.)

Gender as a percentage of the total number of United Methodists
Men: 42.51% (There were 30,488 fewer men reported in 2013 than in 2012)
Women: 57.49% (These were 42,227 fewer women reported in 2013 than in 2012)

Membership Related Statistics
Professing Members: 7,298,907
Baptized Members who are not professing members:  648,861
Constituents: 1,591,833
Average Worship Attendance: 2,900,627

Change in professing membership from 2012 to 2013: -72,829 or -.99%
Change in baptized (non-professing) membership from 2012 to 2013: -46,154 or -6.6%
Change in constituents from 2012 to 2013: 6,138 or .39% 
Change in worship attendance from 2012 to 2013: -55,775 or -1.89%

Number of people baptized : 91,650  (A decrease of 5.6% from 2012)
Number of people in confirmation classes: 64,061 (A decrease of 7.6% from 2012)
Number of professions of faith: 118,079 (A decrease of 5.2% from 2012)
Number of people received from other denominations: 46,920 (A decrease of 6.2% from 2012)
Number of people who transferred to another denomination: 25,329 (An increase of 1.9% from 2012)
Number of deaths: 96,903 (A decrease of .14% from 2012)
Number removed by charge conference: 88,420 (A decrease of 6.2%  from 2012)

Things I Wonder About
• In 2012 there was a slight increase in professions of faith, but in 2013 there was a fairly significant decrease. I wonder how that is related to the decrease in number of people baptized and the number in confirmation?
• I wonder why we increased in the number of constituents but decreased in almost everything else?

Chapter Seventeen - 2012 Stats - Multiple Markers of Vitality Over Time

Chapter Two looked at churches that reported multiple markers of vitality. (http://spreadsheetstories.blogspot.com/2014/04/chapter-two-2012-stats.html) 

This chapter looks at churches that reported multiple markers of vitality for three consecutive years—2010, 2011, 2012. I queried all churches of at least five members that had an increase in worship attendance; at least one profession of faith; children, youth, young adults, and other adults in Christian formation; at least five people in covenant groups; at least ten VBS participants; at least one community outreach ministry; sent at least one person on a mission team; and paid 100% or more of apportionments.  There were were 117 congregations that fell into this category, representing .36% of congregations and 2.4% of  membership. So while for 2012 there were 926 congregations that reported all of these markers, only about 12% of those congregations had maintained this for three consecutive years.

These 117 congregations ranged in average worship attendance from 75 to 5717

The median average worship attendance was 392. (Half the churches had an average attendance less than 392 and half more.)

The mean for worship attendance was 641. (Total worship attendance divided by number of churches.)

These churches combined for an increase in membership of 2.43% and an increase in worship attendance of 5.4%

Combined, these 117 churches accounted for 

• 3.2% of the total number of people in confirmation classes
• 3.1% of the total number of professions of faith
• 4.7% of the total number of people in covenant groups
• 2.7% of the total number of people in Vacation Bible School
• 1.9% of all Sunday School Classes
• 2.8% of all short-term classes
• 2% of all those served by outreach ministries
• 3.5% of all those in Christian Formation

Geographically these churches represented

• 2 Churches in the Western Jurisdiction (.12% of churches in the jurisdiction)
• 44 Churches in the Southeastern Jurisdiction (.39% of churches in the jurisdiction)
• 19 Churches in the North Central Jurisdiction (.28% of churches in the jurisdiction)
• 15 Churches in the Northeastern Jurisdiction (.22% of churches in the jurisdiction)
• 37 Churches in the South Central Jurisdiction (.66% of the churches in the jurisdiction)

In guessing by the name, about 16% of these congregations are served by a lead pastor who is a woman.

I think these numbers indicate how difficult it is to maintain multiple markers of vitality over time. Every jurisdiction had less than 1% of their congregations represented, and 40% of the annual conferences didn't have any churches on the list. Of the twenty-five largest congregations in terms of worship attendance, only three churches are represented. Of the 100 largest congregations in terms of worship attendance, only 14 churches are represented. 

I think these numbers call us to be cautious about reading too much into any particular year of data. While yearly information is important, it also needs to be looked at in context with previous data.

The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.

Chapter Sixteen - 2012 Stats - Direct Billing or Apportioned Benefits

Over the past decade many annual conferences have grappled with whether to apportion or direct bill the cost of pension and health benefits to local churches. When these benefits are apportioned then their cost is incorporated into the apportionment formula, which means that some churches actually pay less than what these benefits cost for their appointed staff and other churches pay more. When these items are direct billed, then each church pays the actual cost for their appointed staff. I thought it would be interesting to see if anything popped out when we looked at those that reported direct billing and those that did not.

Of congregations with at least five members:

• 14,624 congregations (45%) reported direct-billing of both pension benefits and health benefits 

• 9,591 congregations (30%) reported neither direct-billed pension benefits nor health benefits (We can assume both were apportioned)

• 6,686 congregations (20%) reported direct-billed pension benefits but not health benefits  (We can assume health benefits were apportioned)

• 1,539 congregations (5%) reported direct-billed health benefits but not pension benefits  (Not sure what assumptions to make about these congregations, as they represent a variety of annual conferences.)

Those congregations that reported both direct-billed health and pension benefits paid 88.01% of their apportionments and reported 8.75% of their expenditures went to apportionments.

Those congregations that reported neither direct-billed health and pension benefits paid 84.71% of their apportionments and reported 10.75% of their expenditures went to apportionments.

Those congregations that reported direct-billed pension benefits but not health benefits paid 86.05% of their apportionments and reported 10.71% of their expenditures went to apportionments.

Those congregations that reported direct-billed health benefits but not pension benefits paid 86.59% of their apportionments and reported 11.16% of their expenditures went to apportionments.

(Note: The reported percentage of apportionments paid to  expenses includes both district and annual conference apportionments)

Here are a couple of questions these numbers raise for me.

• Do congregations that are direct-billed feel better about the connectional church since their apportionments are a lower percentage of total expenditures?

• Do congregations that pay health and pension benefits as part of apportionments have a clear understanding of the actual cost of staff?

• What would happen if health and pension benefits were all direct-billed, and each church was asked to tithe 10% of their income to the connectional ministries? (Currently the total for all churches over 5 members is 9.19% of congregational expenditures go towards apportionments.)

The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.