Chapter Four – 2013 Stats – Does the Pareto Principle Apply?

In 1896, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the people of Italy. The idea that approximately 80% of effects are the result of about 20% of causes came to be known as the Pareto Principle or the 80-20 rule. For example, many businesses find that 80% of profits come from 20% of customers.

I thought it might be interesting to see if the Pareto Principle was evident in any of our church statistics. I decided to look at the 20% of churches that make up the largest average worship attendance. As with other posts this is based on congregations of at least five members. The 20% of congregations represent 6476 congregations out of a total of 32,154. Every congregation in the 20% had an average worship attendance of 112 or greater.

In 2013, the 20% of congregations with the largest average worship attendance account for:
• 63% of total average worship attendance
• 63% of total professing members
• 66% of all children baptized
• 62% of all adults baptized
• 68% of all professions of faith
• 73% of all people in confirmation class
• 70% of all people received from other United Methodist congregations
• 75% of all people received from other denominations
• 69% of all restored members
• 52% of all deaths
• 69% of all charge conference removals
• 68% of all those who withdrew their membership
• 69% of those who transferred to another United Methodist congregation
• 63% of those who transferred to another denomination
• 50% of Sunday School classes
• 63% of average Sunday School attendance
• 63% of ongoing classes other than Sunday School
• 64% of short term classes
• 57% of UMW members
• 61% of UMM members
• 63% of Vacation Bible School participants
• 74% of children involved in Christian formation
• 74% of youth involved in Christian formation
• 70% of young adults involved in Christian formation
• 71% of all other adults involved in Christian formation
• 71% of those served by community ministries for outreach, justice, and mercy
• 79% of those engaged in mission
• 82% of VIM participants
• 75% of those served by day care or educational ministries
• 65% of total amount apportioned to all churches
• 67% of total amount of apportionments paid by all churches
• 68% of all total local church income
• 67% of total expenses for local congregation pastors and staff
• 59% of total market value of all local congregations including land, buildings, equipment, and other assets

Things I Noticed

• While we don't see a true 80-20 rule in effect, in many cases there does seem to be something of a 65-75 to 20 principle. In all but deaths, Sunday school classes, UMW members, and total market value of assets, the 20% of congregations with the highest average worship attendance account for over 60% of each described category.

• If 20% of our congregations have an average worship attendance of 112 or more, then 80% of our congregations have an average worship attendance of 111 or less.

Things I Wonder About

 • If 20% of the congregations account for 69% of charge conference removals does that indicate that people leave through the "back door" more often in larger worshipping congregations, or does it indicate that smaller worshipping congregations aren't as diligent in keeping their membership roles clean?

• 71% of those served by community ministries, 75% served by day care ministries, 82% of VIM volunteers, and 79% of those engaged in mission come from 20% of congregations. I wonder if it takes so much energy to sustain a smaller worshipping community that there is not much energy left for outreach?

• What does it mean for the way we allocate resources that 20% of congregations account for such a high percentage of the ministry activity that takes place?