Chapter Five – 2013 Stats – A Closer Look at VBS

Vacation Bible School (VBS) as a vehicle for Christian formation and mission outreach has been around for over one hundred years. While it is primarily a ministry with children, some churches have youth and adult components, and many churches have youth and adults who serve as teachers, assistant teachers, music leaders, craft leaders, food preparers, and so forth. 

This chapter takes a closer look at those congregations that have at least ten people participating in VBS. As in other chapters, all the churches referred to have at least five members. One word of reminder, correlation does not imply causation. For example, while it is true that churches with VBS of at least ten people accounted for 82% of all professions of faith, we cannot claim that VBS causes professions of faith. 

The first thing I noticed is that there is very nearly a 50-50 split between churches that have at least ten VBS participants and those that don't. Out of 32,154 congregations, 16,245 had a VBS attendance of less than ten and 15,909 had a VBS attendance of ten or more. One could say that the median VBS attendance for the denomination is 10. However, that would be misleading since it would include the approximately 50% of congregations that do not have VBS. It would be more accurate to say that the median number of participants for churches that have VBS is 45.

The 15,909 congregations with at least 10 VBS participants account for:
• 50% of all United Methodist congregations.
• 79% of all United Methodist members.
• 78% of those worshipping on an average Sunday in a United Methodist Church.
• 87% of those served by day care or other educational ministries.
• 89% of children in Christian formation.
• 88% of youth in Christian formation.
• 86% of all people in Christian formation.
• 73% of all Sunday school classes.
• 90% of all VIM participants
• 89% of all engaged in community mission
• 79% of all served by community ministries of outreach, justice, and mercy.

In doing a geographical breakdown:
• 43% of churches in the Northeastern Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.
• 46% of churches in the Western Jurisdiction  have at least 10 VBS participants.
• 51% of churches in the Southeastern Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.
• 52% of churches in the North Central Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.

• 53% of churches in the South Central Jurisdiction have at least 10 VBS participants.

Things I Noticed

• The 79% of United Methodists who belong to congregations that have at least 10 VBS participants account for 90% of VIM participants and 86% of all people in Christian formation.

• While there are some differences in frequency of VBS based on jurisdiction, there is not a huge difference. 

Things I Wonder About

• Is VBS perhaps an indicator of sustainability? When congregations no longer have the resources, energy, and commitment to provide VBS, does that signal that they may be in danger of not having the capacity to engage in ongoing Christian formation and outreach?

Chapter Four – 2013 Stats – Does the Pareto Principle Apply?

In 1896, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the people of Italy. The idea that approximately 80% of effects are the result of about 20% of causes came to be known as the Pareto Principle or the 80-20 rule. For example, many businesses find that 80% of profits come from 20% of customers.

I thought it might be interesting to see if the Pareto Principle was evident in any of our church statistics. I decided to look at the 20% of churches that make up the largest average worship attendance. As with other posts this is based on congregations of at least five members. The 20% of congregations represent 6476 congregations out of a total of 32,154. Every congregation in the 20% had an average worship attendance of 112 or greater.

In 2013, the 20% of congregations with the largest average worship attendance account for:
• 63% of total average worship attendance
• 63% of total professing members
• 66% of all children baptized
• 62% of all adults baptized
• 68% of all professions of faith
• 73% of all people in confirmation class
• 70% of all people received from other United Methodist congregations
• 75% of all people received from other denominations
• 69% of all restored members
• 52% of all deaths
• 69% of all charge conference removals
• 68% of all those who withdrew their membership
• 69% of those who transferred to another United Methodist congregation
• 63% of those who transferred to another denomination
• 50% of Sunday School classes
• 63% of average Sunday School attendance
• 63% of ongoing classes other than Sunday School
• 64% of short term classes
• 57% of UMW members
• 61% of UMM members
• 63% of Vacation Bible School participants
• 74% of children involved in Christian formation
• 74% of youth involved in Christian formation
• 70% of young adults involved in Christian formation
• 71% of all other adults involved in Christian formation
• 71% of those served by community ministries for outreach, justice, and mercy
• 79% of those engaged in mission
• 82% of VIM participants
• 75% of those served by day care or educational ministries
• 65% of total amount apportioned to all churches
• 67% of total amount of apportionments paid by all churches
• 68% of all total local church income
• 67% of total expenses for local congregation pastors and staff
• 59% of total market value of all local congregations including land, buildings, equipment, and other assets

Things I Noticed

• While we don't see a true 80-20 rule in effect, in many cases there does seem to be something of a 65-75 to 20 principle. In all but deaths, Sunday school classes, UMW members, and total market value of assets, the 20% of congregations with the highest average worship attendance account for over 60% of each described category.

• If 20% of our congregations have an average worship attendance of 112 or more, then 80% of our congregations have an average worship attendance of 111 or less.

Things I Wonder About

 • If 20% of the congregations account for 69% of charge conference removals does that indicate that people leave through the "back door" more often in larger worshipping congregations, or does it indicate that smaller worshipping congregations aren't as diligent in keeping their membership roles clean?

• 71% of those served by community ministries, 75% served by day care ministries, 82% of VIM volunteers, and 79% of those engaged in mission come from 20% of congregations. I wonder if it takes so much energy to sustain a smaller worshipping community that there is not much energy left for outreach?

• What does it mean for the way we allocate resources that 20% of congregations account for such a high percentage of the ministry activity that takes place?

Chapter Three – 2013 Stats – Membership Gains Over Time

The four recorded ways that local congregations gain professing members are through professions of faith, transfer of membership from another United Methodist Church, joining from another denomination, and restored members. This chapter looks at the statistics related to these four areas over the past several years. As in other posts, these numbers are based on churches with at least five members. The figures in parentheses () indicate the raw numbers for the year, and the figures in brackets {} are a percentage comparison to the previous year.

Things I Noticed

• As a percentage of membership gains, professions of faith have been nudging up over the past seven years while those we receive from other congregations, either UMC or other denominations, have been nudging down. Each year from 2007 to 2010, we received more professing members through transfer than we did by profession of faith, in 2011 the numbers were nearly equal, and in each of 2012 and 2013 there were several thousand more professions of faith than transfers.

• The number of people whose membership was restored took a huge drop between 2008 and 2009.

• While there was a bit of an uptick in professions of faith from 2011 to 2012, from 2012 and 2013 was the highest percentage decrease of professions of faith in the past seven years.

• If everyone who became a professing member from 2007 to 2013 were still a member, they would make up over 12% of membership.

• If everyone who became a professing member from 2007 to 2013 were a weekly worship attender, they would make up over 31% of the worshippers each Sunday.

Things I Wonder About

• I wonder if we are being intentional about welcoming United Methodists and other Christians who move into our communities? When people move do they find another church home, or do they join the ranks of those who have no faith community?

• I wonder what it means for worship planning and for faith formation experiences that an increasing percentage of our new members are also new Christians?

Of all reported membership gains in 2013
49% were professions of faith (118,079) {5.2% fewer than 2012}
27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (66,012) {4.4% fewer than 2012}
19% were received from other denominations (46,920) {6.2% fewer than 2012}
5% were restored members (11,553) {7.1% fewer than 2012}
Total Number of people: (242,564) {5.3% fewer than 2012}

Of all reported membership gains in 2012
49% were professions of faith (124,598) {.5% more than 2011}
27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (69,051) {5.1% fewer than 2011}
20% were received from other denominations (50,023) {1.5% fewer than 2011}
5% were restored members (12,443) {.75% more than 2011}
Total Number of people: (256,115) {1.3% fewer than 2011}

Of all reported membership gains in 2011
48% were professions of faith (123,960) {3.5% fewer than 2010}
28% were received from other United Methodist Churches (72,762) {10.5% fewer than 2010}
20% were received from other denominations (50,773) {.5% fewer than 2010}
5% were restored members (12,350) {5.3% more than 2010}
Total Number of people: (259,485) {4.8% fewer than 2010)

Of all reported membership gains in 2010
47% were professions of faith (128,454) {4.8% fewer than 2009}
30% were received from other United Methodist Churches (81,271) {5.9% fewer than 2009}
19% were received from other denominations (51,053) {9.6% fewer than 2009}
4% were restored members (11,728) {12.4% fewer than 2009} {.6% fewer than 2009}
Total Number of people: (272,506) {6.4% fewer than 2009}

Of all reported membership gains in 2009
46% were professions  of faith (134,987) {.6% fewer than 2008}
30% were received from other United Methodist Churches (86,393) {7.5% more than 2008}
19% were received from other denominations (56,470) {7.1% fewer than 2008}
5% were restored members (13,382) {46.3% fewer than 2008}
Total Number of people: (291,232) {3.5% fewer than 2008}

Of all reported membership gains in 2008
45% were professions of faith (135,748) {3.2% fewer than 2007}
27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (80,333) {8.2% fewer than 2007}
20% were received from other denominations (60,756) {5.1% fewer than 2007}
8% were restored members (24,942) {4.0% fewer than 2007}
Total Number of people: (301,779) {5% fewer than 2007}

Of all reported membership gains in 2007
44% were professions of faith (140,199)
28% were received from other United Methodist Churches (87,539)
20% were received from other denominations (64,016)
8% were restored members (25,970)
Total Number of people: (317,724)