Chapter Nine — 2012 Stats — Membership Gains Over Time

In the last chapter we looked at the ways we had lost members over a six-year period of time. In this chapter, we are looking at the ways we gained members from 2007 to 2012. While there doesn't seem to be much difference in the percentages from year to year, when we compare 2007 to 2012 it appears that the percentage of members gained by profession of faith has been inching upward. In 2007, 44% of membership gains came through professions of faith, and in 2012, 49% of membership gains came through professions of faith. While the total number of gains has decreased each year, the number of professions of faith actually increased between 2011 and 2012. 

Here are a few  comparisons to help get a sense of how many people have made professions of faith in a United Methodist Church in the past few years.

  • If we started a new city made up of every person who made a profession of faith in a  year, each year we would be adding a city about the size of Clarksville. 

  • If all of the people who made a profession of faith in one year worshipped together, you would have more than 18 times the number of people that worship at Church of the Resurrection on an average Sunday.

  • If all the people who had made a profession of faith between 2007 and 2012 lived in one city, with no one else, it would be the 18th largest city in the U.S.

  • The total number of people who have made a profession of faith between 2007 and 2012 is slightly more than 10% of the entire U.S. membership in The United Methodist Church.

These statistics made me wonder:

  • How many of those people who made a profession of faith in 2007 are more mature disciples today?

  • How many of those people who made a profession of faith in 2007 are no longer part of a faith community today?

  • How do we as a church nurture people in the first few years after they make a profession of faith to help them grow in their discipleship?

  • If making a profession of faith is a critical event in a person's faith development, regardless of his or her age, what resources do we provide at that point to equip people to live as disciples in the world?

I hope the numbers below prompt questions for you and the work you do. All figures are based on congregations of at least five people.

Of all reported membership gains in 2007

44% were professions of faith (140,199)

28% were received from other United Methodist Churches (87,539)

20% were received from other denominations (64,016)

8% were restored members (25,970)

Total Number of people: 317,724

Of all reported membership gains in 2008

45% were professions of faith (135,748)

27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (80,333)

20% were received from other denominations (60,756)

8% were restored members (24,942)

Total Number of people: 301779 (5% fewer than 2007)

Of all reported membership gains in 2009

46% were professions  of faith (134,987)

30% were received from other United Methodist Churches (86,393)

19% were received from other denominations (56,470)

5% were restored members (13,382)

Total Number of people: 291,232 (3.5% fewer than 2008)

Of all reported membership gains in 2010

47% were professions of faith (128,454)

30% were received from other United Methodist Churches (81,271)

19% were received from other denominations (51,053)

4% were restored members (11,728)

Total Number of people: 272,506 (6.4% fewer than 2009)

Of all reported membership gains in 2011

48% were professions of faith (123,960)

28% were received from other United Methodist Churches (72,762) 

20% were received from other denominations (50,773)

5% were restored members (12,350)

Total Number of people: 259,485 (4.8% fewer than 2010)

Of all reported membership gains in 2012

49% were professions of faith (124,598)

27% were received from other United Methodist Churches (69,051)

20% were received from other denominations (50,023)

5% were restored members (12,443)

Total Number of people: 256115 (1.3% fewer than 2011)

The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another

Chapter Eight — 2012 Stats — Membership Loss Over Time

This chapter looks at the ways in which we have lost members over a six year period, beginning with 2007 and based on congregations reporting at least five members. I think it is interesting to note a change that occurred between 2008 and 2009. In 2007 and 2008, we lost the most members to charge conference removal followed by death. In 2009 a flip occurred and we began to lose more members to death than to charge conference removal. That flip has continued through 2012. In 2007, 28% of reported losses were due to death. In 2012, 33% of membership losses were due to death.  

In terms of raw numbers, fewer people have died each year since 2007, so the total number of funerals being conducted for members each year has probably declined. Intuitively we migh think that if the percentage of membership loss due to death is increasing, the number of funerals each year would increase. However, when estimating the number of funerals we have to look at the raw numbers.  In 2007 there were 104,145 deaths, and in 2012 there were  97,042 deaths. So we might assume that about 7,000 fewer funerals were done for members in 2012 than 2007.

If as a denomination we are doing about 7,000 fewer funerals per year, we might intuitively think that the average number of funerals per congregation was decreasing. However, when estimating the average number of funerals per congregation we have to take into account the total number of congregations in each year. In 2007 there were 33,748 congregations with at least five members, and in 2012 there were 32,440 congregations. So in 2007 there was an average of 3.09 deaths per congregation, and in 2012 an average of 2.99 deaths per congregation. If we round to the nearest whole number, it would be 3 deaths per congregation in both years. Of course, there is no church named Mathematically Average United Methodist Church, so these numbers don't indicate anything about the number of funerals any particular church might have.

All of this is to remind us that the statistics lead us to ask interesting questions and help to identify emerging trends, but they are only one piece of a much more complex puzzle. For example these statistics don't really tell us if we are dying at a faster rate, or if we are getting more lax in keeping our membership roles and thus removing fewer people by charge conference action.

Of all reported membership losses in 2007:

28% were a result of death

33% were removed by charge conference action

15% withdrew 

16% transferred to another United Methodist congregation

9% transferred to another denomination

Total Number: 375,535

Of all reported membership losses in 2008:

31% were a result of death

35% were removed by charge conference action

16% withdrew 

9% transferred to another United Methodist congregation

9% transferred to another denomination

Total Number: 338,673

Of all reported membership losses in 2009:

31% were a result of death

30% were removed by charge conference action

15% withdrew 

15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation

9% transferred to another denomination

Total Number: 323,850

Of all reported membership losses in 2010:

32% were a result of death

31% were removed by charge conference action

14% withdrew 

15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation

9% transferred to another denomination

Total Number: 308,445

Of all reported membership losses in 2011:

33% were a result of death

31% were removed by charge conference action

13% withdrew 

15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation

9% transferred to another denomination

Total Number: 296,602

Of all reported membership losses in 2012:

33% were a result of death

32% were removed by charge conference action

14% withdrew 

14% transferred to another United Methodist congregation

8% transferred to another denomination

Total Number: 295,297

The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.

Chapter Seven — 2012 Stats — Annual Conference Worship Attendance, Membership, and Participation Ratio

Recently the United Methodist Reporter has posted comments from a 2011 blog based on the 2009 statistics.

http://unitedmethodistreporter.com/2014/05/18/recently-read-top-annual-conferences-umc/

I thought it would be interesting to see what the 2012 statistics showed for the same information. Below you will find a chart that lists each annual conference with the following items:

Average worship attendance: This is the sum of average weekly attendance for all reporting churches in 2012

Worship rank: This is how the annual conference ranks in comparison to other annual conferences related to worship attendance. (Florida had the highest average worship attendance and Alaska had the lowest)

Membership: This is the sum of total membership for all reporting churches in 2012

Membership Rank: This is how the annual conference ranks in comparison to other annual conferences related to membership. (North Georgia has the largest membership and Alaska has the smallest)

Participation Ratio: This is the ratio of total average worship attendance divided by total membership, expressed as a percentage. (For the whole church in the U.S. the participation ratio is 39.5%)

Participation Rank: This is how the annual conference ranks in comparison to other annual conferences related to participation ratio. (Desert Southwest has the highest participation ratio and Oklahoma has the lowest.)

As with all statistics, the numbers themselves don't provide conclusive information about the annual conference vitality. They do lead to interesting questions that may shed light on issues related to annual conference vitality. Here are a few questions that the numbers raised for me.

• If the annual conference is in an area where the United Methodist Church has traditionally been the most prominent church, is there a greater pressure to not remove people by charge conference action, thus reducing the participation ratio?

• We know from other studies that younger people  attend worship on a less frequent basis than do older people. So is an increasing membership and a declining participation ratio an indicator of reaching a younger demographic?

• There is some evidence that younger people are less likely to become members. So is a declining membership and an increasing participation ratio an indicator of reaching a younger demographic?

• How significant are weather patterns in relationship to participation ratios?

Annual Conference	Worship attendance	Worship rank	Membership	Member Rank	Participation Ratio	Participation Rank
Alabama- West Florida	67781	15	145049	24	45.35%	19
Alaska	2054	54	3508	54	58.55%	4
Arkansas	51986	26	134864	26	38.55%	35
Baltimore-Washington	64415	17	173791	14	37.06%	40
Cal-Nevada	32461	41	75826	42	42.81%	22
Cal-Pac	48047	30	76237	41	63.02%	2
Central Texas	47040	33	166859	17	28.19%	52
Dakotas	20427	48	36512	49	55.95%	7
Desert Southwest	24885	47	35883	50	69.35%	1
Detroit	66512	16	125543	30	52.98%	8
East Ohio	61024	20	158169	20	38.58%	33
Eastern Pennsylvania	41819	35	110998	33	37.68%	38
Florida	133577	1	263274	5	50.74%	10
Great Plains	90997	8	223009	9	40.80%	27
Greater New Jersey	47311	31	92403	37	51.20%	9
Holston	68467	13	165455	18	41.38%	23
Illinois Great Rivers	63718	19	133753	27	47.64%	17
Indiana	111352	4	196564	10	56.65%	6
Iowa	54857	25	171694	15	31.95%	48
Kentucky/RedBird	56963	22	153630	22	37.08%	39
Louisiana	41185	36	120935	31	34.06%	46
Memphis	29953	46	82117	40	36.48%	42
Minnesota	32255	42	67731	44	47.62%	18
Mississippi	69618	12	179320	12	38.82%	32
Missouri	80946	10	163449	19	49.52%	12
New England	31516	44	91333	38	34.51%	45
New Mexico	14126	51	34440	51	41.02%	26
New York	33797	40	110229	34	30.66%	51
North Alabama	68132	14	135458	25	50.30%	11
North Carolina	79743	11	229064	8	34.81%	44
North Georgia	127186	2	363505	1	34.99%	43
North Texas	59943	21	148891	23	40.26%	29
Northern Illinois	35967	38	94196	36	38.18%	37
Northwest Texas	19107	50	62100	46	30.77%	50
Oklahoma/OIM	56512	23	240757	6	23.47%	54
Oregon-Idaho	13660	52	27917	52	48.93%	14
Pacific Northwest	19954	49	46085	48	43.30%	21
Peninsula-Delaware	31753	43	82801	39	38.35%	36
Rio Texas	50009	28	127971	29	39.08%	31
Rocky Mountain	30257	45	63318	45	47.79%	16
South Carolina	90790	9	235520	7	38.55%	34
South Georgia	50916	27	128120	28	39.99%	30
Susquehanna	63988	18	154994	21	41.28%	24
Tennessee	48435	29	118916	32	40.73%	28
Texas	105231	6	284206	4	37.03%	41
Upper New York	47074	32	168241	16	27.98%	53
Virginia	105018	7	332637	2	31.57%	49
West Michigan	35975	37	60570	47	59.39%	3
West Ohio	109983	5	188059	11	58.48%	5
West Virginia	43613	34	98710	35	44.18%	20
Western North Carolina	117566	3	286537	3	41.03%	25
Western Pennsylvania	56205	24	173928	13	32.32%	47
Wisconsin	35888	39	73778	43	48.64%	15
Yellowstone	6193	53	12611	53	49.11%	13

The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.