Chapter Eight focused on membership loss across the past six years. This chapter looks more in depth at membership losses in 2012. Of particular note is what I call the "charge conference effect." It is distressing that the statistic that jumps out most prominently is that churches that reported an increase in membership showed that 46% of their membership loss came from deaths and 12% from charge conference removal , and churches that showed no change in membership reported that 60% of their loss came from deaths and 10% from charge conference removal. On the other hand, churches that had decreased in membership between 2011 and 2012 reported that 28% of their membership loss came from deaths and 39% from charge conference removal.
Rather than being an indicator of church health, a case might be made that an increase in membership is more likely to be an indicator of sloppy membership records. I wonder what would happen, if every church that recorded no change or a membership increase in 2012 was required to do a membership audit and document compliance with Paragraph 228.1 to 228.4 of the Discipline?
If we compare churches that removed at least one person by charge conference action with churches that had zero charge conference removals, we see some interesting numbers related to worship attendance. While churches that removed at least one person by charge conference action had a combined membership loss of nearly 5%, they showed a worship attendance decline of just 1.19%. On the other hand, churches that had zero charge conference removals showed a combined membership increase of .29%, but they showed an even larger decline in worship attendance at –1.36%.
We see the effect even more clearly when looking just at churches that declined in worship attendance. Those churches that declined in worship attendance and had at least one charge conference removal showed a membership decline of 6.13% and worship attendance decline of 7.82%. So their worship attendance was declining at a slightly higher rate than their membership decline. In comparison, churches that declined in worship attendance but had no charge conference removals showed a combined membership decline of only .59% but a worship decline of 11.15%. So the worship attendance was not only declining at a much higher rate than their membership decline, it was declining at a higher rate than those churches that had removed people by charge conference.
Below you will find various ways of looking at the loss of members in 2012. These figures are based on churches of at least five members. I hope they raise interesting questions for you.
Of all reported membership losses in 2012:
33% were a result of death
32% were removed by charge conference action
14% withdrew
14% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
8% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 295,297
Number of Churches: 32440
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -.91%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -1.32%
Membership loss of churches that reported an increase in membership
46% were a result of death
12% were removed by charge conference action
10% withdrew
20% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
11% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 71,538
Number of Churches: 11102
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: +3.31%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: +1.31%
Membership loss of churches that reported a decrease in membership
28% were a result of death
39% were removed by charge conference action
14% withdrew
12% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
8% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 216748
Number of Churches: 15053
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -5.3%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -3.86%
Membership loss of churches that reported no change in membership
60% were a result of death
10% were removed by charge conference action
7% withdrew
15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
8% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 6941
Number of Churches: 6285
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: 0%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -3.63%
Membership loss of churches that reported at least one person removed by charge conference action
15% were a result of death
62% were removed by charge conference action
10% withdrew
8% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
5% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 152113
Number of Churches: 4009
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -4.96%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -1.19%
Membership loss of churches that reported zero charge conference removals
52% were a result of death
0% were removed by charge conference action
16% withdrew
20% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
12% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 143114
Number of Churches: 28431
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: +.29%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -1.36%
Membership loss of churches that reported an increase in average worship attendance
34% were a result of death
31% were removed by charge conference action
13% withdrew
14% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
8% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 106517
Number of Churches: 11274
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: +.55%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: +10.83%
Membership loss of churches that reported a decrease in average worship attendance
31% were a result of death
33% were removed by charge conference action
13% withdrew
14% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
9% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 170631
Number of Churches: 15377
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -1.91%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -10.29%
Membership loss of churches that reported no change in average worship attendance
44% were a result of death
26% were removed by charge conference action
13% withdrew
11% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
6% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 18079
Number of Churches: 5789
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -1.34%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: 0%
Membership loss of churches that reported an increase in average worship attendance and zero charge conference removals
52% were a result of death
0% were removed by charge conference action
16% withdrew
20% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
12% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 51547
Number of Churches: 9770
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: +1.68%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: +11.94%
Membership loss of churches that reported an increase in average worship attendance and at least one charge conference removal
16% were a result of death
60% were removed by charge conference action
10% withdrew
8% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
5% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 54970
Number of Churches:1504
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -3.13%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: +7.74%
Membership loss of churches that reported a decrease in average worship attendance and zero charge conference removals
50% were a result of death
0% were removed by charge conference action
16% withdrew
20% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
13% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 80745
Number of Churches:13211
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -.59%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -11.15%
Membership loss of churches that reported a decrease in average worship attendance and at least one charge conference removal
14% were a result of death
63% were removed by charge conference action
10% withdrew
8% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
4% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 89906
Number of Churches:2166
Membership change from 2011 to 2012: -6.13%
Worship attendance change from 2011 to 2012: -7.82%
The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.
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