Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Chapter Seventeen - 2012 Stats - Multiple Markers of Vitality Over Time

Chapter Two looked at churches that reported multiple markers of vitality. (http://spreadsheetstories.blogspot.com/2014/04/chapter-two-2012-stats.html

This chapter looks at churches that reported multiple markers of vitality for three consecutive years—2010, 2011, 2012. I queried all churches of at least five members that had an increase in worship attendance; at least one profession of faith; children, youth, young adults, and other adults in Christian formation; at least five people in covenant groups; at least ten VBS participants; at least one community outreach ministry; sent at least one person on a mission team; and paid 100% or more of apportionments.  There were were 117 congregations that fell into this category, representing .36% of congregations and 2.4% of  membership. So while for 2012 there were 926 congregations that reported all of these markers, only about 12% of those congregations had maintained this for three consecutive years.

These 117 congregations ranged in average worship attendance from 75 to 5717

The median average worship attendance was 392. (Half the churches had an average attendance less than 392 and half more.)
The mean for worship attendance was 641. (Total worship attendance divided by number of churches.)
These churches combined for an increase in membership of 2.43% and an increase in worship attendance of 5.4%

Combined, these 117 churches accounted for 
  • 3.2% of the total number of people in confirmation classes
  • 3.1% of the total number of professions of faith
  • 4.7% of the total number of people in covenant groups
  • 2.7% of the total number of people in Vacation Bible School
  • 1.9% of all Sunday School Classes
  • 2.8% of all short-term classes
  • 2% of all those served by outreach ministries
  • 3.5% of all those in Christian Formation

Geographically these churches represented
  • 2 Churches in the Western Jurisdiction (.12% of churches in the jurisdiction)
  • 44 Churches in the Southeastern Jurisdiction (.39% of churches in the jurisdiction)
  • 19 Churches in the North Central Jurisdiction (.28% of churches in the jurisdiction)
  • 15 Churches in the Northeastern Jurisdiction (.22% of churches in the jurisdiction)
  • 37 Churches in the South Central Jurisdiction (.66% of the churches in the jurisdiction)

In guessing by the name, about 16% of these congregations are served by a lead pastor who is a woman.

I think these numbers indicate how difficult it is to maintain multiple markers of vitality over time. Every jurisdiction had less than 1% of their congregations represented, and 40% of the annual conferences didn't have any churches on the list. Of the twenty-five largest congregations in terms of worship attendance, only three churches are represented. Of the 100 largest congregations in terms of worship attendance, only 14 churches are represented. 

I think these numbers call us to be cautious about reading too much into any particular year of data. While yearly information is important, it also needs to be looked at in context with previous data.

The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.


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