This chapter looks at the ways in which we have lost members over a six year period, beginning with 2007 and based on congregations reporting at least five members. I think it is interesting to note a change that occurred between 2008 and 2009. In 2007 and 2008, we lost the most members to charge conference removal followed by death. In 2009 a flip occurred and we began to lose more members to death than to charge conference removal. That flip has continued through 2012. In 2007, 28% of reported losses were due to death. In 2012, 33% of membership losses were due to death.
In terms of raw numbers, fewer people have died each year since 2007, so the total number of funerals being conducted for members each year has probably declined. Intuitively we migh think that if the percentage of membership loss due to death is increasing, the number of funerals each year would increase. However, when estimating the number of funerals we have to look at the raw numbers. In 2007 there were 104,145 deaths, and in 2012 there were 97,042 deaths. So we might assume that about 7,000 fewer funerals were done for members in 2012 than 2007.
If as a denomination we are doing about 7,000 fewer funerals per year, we might intuitively think that the average number of funerals per congregation was decreasing. However, when estimating the average number of funerals per congregation we have to take into account the total number of congregations in each year. In 2007 there were 33,748 congregations with at least five members, and in 2012 there were 32,440 congregations. So in 2007 there was an average of 3.09 deaths per congregation, and in 2012 an average of 2.99 deaths per congregation. If we round to the nearest whole number, it would be 3 deaths per congregation in both years. Of course, there is no church named Mathematically Average United Methodist Church, so these numbers don't indicate anything about the number of funerals any particular church might have.
All of this is to remind us that the statistics lead us to ask interesting questions and help to identify emerging trends, but they are only one piece of a much more complex puzzle. For example these statistics don't really tell us if we are dying at a faster rate, or if we are getting more lax in keeping our membership roles and thus removing fewer people by charge conference action.
Of all reported membership losses in 2007:
28% were a result of death
33% were removed by charge conference action
15% withdrew
16% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
9% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 375,535
Of all reported membership losses in 2008:
31% were a result of death
35% were removed by charge conference action
16% withdrew
9% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
9% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 338,673
Of all reported membership losses in 2009:
31% were a result of death
30% were removed by charge conference action
15% withdrew
15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
9% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 323,850
Of all reported membership losses in 2010:
32% were a result of death
31% were removed by charge conference action
14% withdrew
15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
9% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 308,445
Of all reported membership losses in 2011:
33% were a result of death
31% were removed by charge conference action
13% withdrew
15% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
9% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 296,602
Of all reported membership losses in 2012:
33% were a result of death
32% were removed by charge conference action
14% withdrew
14% transferred to another United Methodist congregation
8% transferred to another denomination
Total Number: 295,297
The statistical data included herein were provided at no charge by the General Council on Finance and Administration of The United Methodist Church (GCFA) and may be obtained directly from GCFA, PO Box 340020, Nashville, TN 37203-0029. This data is proprietary and is owned by GCFA and may not be used in any commercial or exploitative way, to make a financial profit, or in a manner that defames the United Methodist denomination or its agencies or organizations. GCFA does not endorse any particular use of the data or accept responsibility for its interpretation or analysis by another.
No comments:
Post a Comment